Skip to main content

Finding facts and data about COVID-19

It's easy to find thoughts on COVID-19, but hard to parse through it all.  This series is my attempt to give my view of the state of knowledge about COVID-19, as of late July and early August through late 2020.

Here are the entries (these will become links as I post the others):

  1. Finding facts and data about COVID-19 (this one)
  2. Why COVID-19 is much worse than the seasonal flu
  3. Testing, contact tracing, and quarantining
  4. The path to vaccines
  5. To wear a mask or not
  6. Deaths and long-term impacts
  7. Economic and secondary impacts
  8. Safely co-existing
  9. Bots and divisiveness
  10. Leadership

You need to find reputable sources for data.  People are rightly skeptical of what they see online.  In fact, the World Health Organization has declared that, beyond the pandemic, there is an Infodemic, which is “a surge of information about COVID-19 that has made it hard for people to know which news and guidance about the virus is accurate.”

If you are actually interested in how to find the best news and interpret it well, go over to the News Literacy Project. If you are wondering if that would be worth your while, you might enjoy After the Fact's discussion on it.

Back to finding COVID-19 data, remember that anytime you are looking at any large dataset, it's not perfect. Different hospitals save data differently, and those roll up to different counties and states.  And the other countries aren't somehow matching that hodgepodge.  There are different capabilities and definitions, and different commitments to transparency.  But ... that doesn't mean you throw up your hands and give up. Data doesn't have to be perfect to be indicative ... and what else are you going to do? You still have to make decisions, as do world leaders. So, just realize it's imperfect.

Here are some of the recognized metrics to review:

  • Absolute numbers (how many cases, deaths, etc.)
  • Deaths per million (controls for population size)
  • Cases per million (still controlling)
  • Deaths per million by days since 100th case (sufficiently in the population)
  • Positivity rate of tests (testing sufficiency)
  • Reproduction rate [R0] (how many people you infect, on average)
  • Excess deaths (how many deaths more than expected or explained by COVID-19)

For many of the metrics, you should definitely find your own data and charts.  In the US, most people seem to rely on the Johns Hopkins numbers.  Oxford's Our World in Data numbers are also quite good, and they are my go-to.  And, of course, there is the WHO.

Okay, now that you have reviewed the numbers, what else should we know, to have a discussion here? First, some quick terminology.  Coronavirus is the name for a group of viruses.  In 2019, a new strain of virus, called SARS-COV2, was discovered in the human population, and the disease caused by that virus is COVID-19.  

How does SARS-COV2 spread?  Health experts agree that the virus is most likely to be spread when large quantities of it enter your lungs. This occurs most frequently when there are large droplets, like from a cough or sneeze, in the air shared with someone else in close proximity.  The worst places? Prisons, nursing homes, ships, meatpacking plants, parties, churches and revivals, and restaurants and bars. And, of course, living with someone who has been in one of those situations.

Who dies? While anyone can die from COVID-19, the biggest predictor by far is age.  If you are over 85, you are in real trouble.  It also strikes those with other pre-existing conditions, in particular diabetes, COPD, and heart disease. And it strikes black, Hispanic, and Native Americans in disproportionate numbers.

What else does it do to the body?  Unfortunately, we don't know nearly enough, but what we do know is bad.  Extensive lung damage, heart damage, kidney damage, and neuro damage have all been chronicled. There is also growing evidence that it can cause Type-1 diabetes. There is a rare disease in kids where the whole body is overtaken by inflammation.

What other impacts should be considered?  The pandemic caused many people to lose jobs, which in the US often means health insurance.  When the world economy tanked in ways it has not since the Great Depression, that impacted mental health and charitable giving (and therefore charitable missions). Entire sectors of the economy may take years to recover, such as transportation and tourism, live entertainment, and many others.  Shutting down the education system will put many children behind, both intellectually and emotionally.  Of course, like in all crises, there are new opportunities and innovations, such as much wider adoption of remote work.

I'll talk about all of these, and other items including alternate pathways we could have taken as a society.

Labels:

Comments

  1. Janet DarlingJuly 31, 2020 at 9:53 AM

    Thank you for the enlightening and informative article, Brandon. As always, I love your writing style.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How to read the Bill of Rights

The legal rights in the Bill of Rights didn't exist until the 20th century Social media has been abuzz with the Bill of Rights, and in particular the 1st Amendment, recently. Many posts, explicitly or implicitly, trace the Bill of Rights to the Founders.  That's wrong and leads to a poor understanding. A proper reading of the Constitution and the law reveals that, while the text was written then, these rights did not apply even on paper to the states until 1868, in fact until the middle of the 20th century, or even into the 21st century for the 2nd Amendment. “It is a Constitution we are expounding.” The Constitution sets out principles and goals, structures and limitations, and we must never forget that . It is law -- the highest law of the land , in fact -- but it is not code , which is detailed and often attempts to be exhaustively complete and explicit. The Constitution was written to provide a framework of balances by a group of  flawed aristocrats trying to rebel from an...
Post a Comment
Read more

Election 2016: Why Hillary’s conflated scandals are unconvincing #ImWithHer

This is part of a series of posts on Election 2016 . To be honest, I’ve stopped listening to most of the scandals about Hillary. That’s not because I think she is perfect or would never do something scandalous, but because the noise of obvious crap, generated over 3 decades, has made me jaded about spending any time investigating stories by people who think Killary is a fascist Communist. To be clear, I think she is an imperfect human. We don’t subject most politicians to the kind of scrutiny that Hillary has faced – how much do we know about George and Laura’s relationship, or his struggles with addiction, for instance?  But she isn’t perfect.  I think she is a bit paranoid and has a tendency to “circle the wagons” at the slightest sign of problems, and I think she is a fierce competitor that swings first and asks questions later. Like all successful politicians, she is willing to spin the truth to meet her needs, and she comes across, in crowd settings, as a bit fak...
Post a Comment
Read more

Why COVID-19 is MUCH worse than the seasonal flu

This is the second in a series of posts about the COVID-19 pandemic . This installment is discussing why COVID-19 is much, much worse than the seasonal flu. Here it is, in a nutshell : COVID-19 is more contagious, more deadly, already has more known long-term impacts, has no vaccine or truly effective treatments, and has no apparent seasonality. Contagion SARS-COV-2 is much more contagious. The median R0 (average number of people infected by each person when nobody is immune) is 5.7 , or more optimistically 2.5 . For the pandemic to go away, R0 would need to effectively be less than 1.  The estimate of the 1918 novel flu was between 1.2 and 2.4 .  (An R0 of 5.7 means we need over 80% of the population to be immune to reach effective herd immunity .) Beyond that, the incubation period is long, and the number of transmissions before symptoms begin hovers near half those infected . And the duration of being contagious is longer, up to 10 days after the first symptoms. That means ...
3 comments
Read more